Despite the best opinion polls, the one thing you can never predict is exactly what a person will do when they get in the ballot box on election day. You've run the gamut of the parties "how to vote" card people; you might even have passed some interest groups (like GetUp!) handing out other election material; you may have sampled the sausage sizzle and be planning to visit the cake stall on your way out; but when you're in there, just you and the ballot paper, who knows what might happen.
Oh, there are those die-hard Labor and Liberal types, but even they are wavering this election. The primary vote for each party (if the opinion polls are to be believed) is at a record low. One poll is putting the two party preferred split at 50/50. Pundits are predicting a hung parliament.
My feeling has always been that the Labor party will scrape across the line in this election. I had previously felt that they would lose around nine seats (and no, I don't have any 'science' for that, just intuition!). However, now I'm not feeling so confident. It would be unusual for a first term government to lose office, but this government has a number of issues which set it apart from the 'norm'.
I have always believed that the dumping of Kevin Rudd was a strategic mistake on the part of the Labor Party. This feeling was confirmed tonight when I saw footage of a passer-by in a shopping mall shout at PM Julia Gillard that she was a 'back stabber' that she had back stabbed Kevin Rudd. In some quarters, passions are still running high about how Rudd was removed. There seems to be a variety of issues. Some people are angry that *they* don't get the chance to vote Kevin out. Others feel it was un-Australian to 'sack' the Prime Minister. Whichever way you look at it, it was not well thought through in terms of its implications both in the short and longer term.
Undoubtedly Kevin Rudd was not popular in his party and he paid the price for being autocratic in style and substance. When you have no support base, you are bound to crumble. The mining tax was shaping up to be a disaster given Kevin Rudd's refusal to compromise (to even SAY the word) in any way. I do believe something needed to be done, but I wonder if it will a driving factor in the poll booth? KRudd was a dork, but he was our dork. It was up to the Australian people to judge how well he did in the job and many voters will remember that they never got to exercise that judgement thanks to the machinations of the Labor Party.
On a recent episode of "60 Minutes"(Australia), former Opposition Leader Mark Latham said:
"...When it comes to good ideas for Australia's future, Gillard and Abbott have given the voters a blank piece of paper. I say let's give them a blank piece of paper in return. They say voting is compulsory in Australia, but it's not compulsory to fill out the ballot paper. You can put it straight into the ballot box totally blank - that's what I'll be doing next Saturday, and I urge you to do the same. It's the ultimate protest vote..."
The only party with any vision this time around is the Greens. We've been warned about how extreme they are. And in some areas they do have what would be considered 'extreme' views. But at the same time, it feels as if they are the only party that stands for something.
I await to see the actual poll results. The primary vote; the 'protest' vote and the informal vote! I wonder just how many will try Mark Latham's stunt? I can imagine it might be very appealing to some.
